US Dollar sees some gains as markets gear up for CPI data
- DXY trades near 106.00 with muted price action as markets prepare for November CPI.
- Inflation data is forecast to edge higher, keeping the Federal Reserve's cautious tone in focus.
- Profit-taking moderates gains, but strong economic data continues to support the Greenback.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) holds steady around the 106.00 mark as markets recalibrate following robust Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data last week. While a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) remains widely anticipated, attention now shifts to November Consumer Price Index (CPI) data due Wednesday. Analysts expect annual headline inflation to rise to 2.7% from October's 2.6%, while the core CPI is likely to remain unchanged at 3.3%.
Despite some profit-taking after recent rallies, the Greenback remains buoyed by strong US economic fundamentals, with solid growth and sentiment indicators offering continued support.
Daily digest market movers: US Dollar trades sideways with key data ahead, backed by strong economic outlook
- November CPI headline inflation is forecast to rise to 2.7%, while core inflation is seen steady at 3.3%.
- NFIB small business optimism surged to 101.7, its highest level since June 2021, reflecting improved business conditions.
- The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model predicts Q4 growth at 3.3%, while the New York Fed Nowcast model projects 1.9% for Q4 and 2.4% for Q1 2025.
- Markets are pricing nearly 90% odds of a December rate cut, expected to be a "hawkish cut" amid sticky inflation concerns.
DXY technical outlook: Bulls eye higher levels amid cautious optimism
The DXY hovers near 106.00, with technical indicators offering mixed signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) points slightly upward but remains in negative territory, suggesting limited bullish momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator shows smaller red histogram bars, signaling reduced bearish pressure.
The index is approaching the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), a pivotal level for short-term direction. Resistance levels are noted at 106.50 and 107.00, while support remains strong between 105.50 and 106.00. Traders await Wednesday’s CPI release, which could trigger heightened volatility depending on the inflation outcome.
Central banks FAQs
Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%.
A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing.
A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%.
Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.