GBP/USD recovers ground as markets tilt into risk-on sentiment
- GBP/USD snapped back above the 1.2600 decisively on Wednesday.
- Cable is now bound for a fresh test of 1.2700, but data remains lean.
- A raft of widely-expected US data clears the way for US market holiday.
GBP/USD finally broke back above 1.2600 on Wednesday, propelled higher by a broad-market softening in the Greenback’s recent bullish stance. Economic data remains slim on the UK side of the calendar, and following Wednesday’s broad print of US figures that came in broadly as expected, markets are set for a quiet showing for the rest of the week.
Investors will see a notable constraint on market flows on Thursday and Friday: US markets will be entirely shuttered on Thursday for the US Thanksgiving holiday, and Friday will be light as well with most US exchanges cutting their operating hours short. The UK’s data docket remains equally-thin next week, where investors will be pivoting to face another round of US Nonfarm Payrolls figures next Friday, with plenty of preview employment data to muck up the view.
Annualized US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by the expected 2.8% through the third quarter, to no one's surprise and barely moving the needle on investor pulses. Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCEPI) accelerated to 2.8% for the year ended in October, also meeting expectations. While upticks in inflation metrics generally bode poorly for market expectations of future rate cuts, the move upward was widely expected, and a hold in monthly figures at 0.3% MoM helped to frame the bump in the data as being in the rear-view mirror.
GBP/USD price forecast
Wednesday’s Cable rebound has the pair taking a fresh run at the 1.2700 handle, adding nearly a full percent through the day’s trading and priming GBP/USD bulls for a new leg back into the high side following a 7% top-to-bottom decline from September’s peaks at 1.3434. However, long positioning is set to run into new challenges at the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.2835.
GBP/USD daily chart
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.